athletic bilbao vs osasuna prediction: Athletic Bilbao and Osasuna meet at Estadio San Mames on Tuesday with one point separating them in La Liga ahead of matchday 32.
Athletic Bilbao Form and Injuries
Matchday 32 opens with Athletic Bilbao sitting in 11th position and carrying poor recent form, having lost four of their last five matches and conceding a 2-1 defeat at home to Villarreal in their most recent outing. Benat Prados remains in rehabilitation from an anterior cruciate ligament injury, and Antoni Gorosabel could replace Inigo Lekue after coming on as a half-time substitute against Villarreal, a selection update that matters given Athletic's run of seven home league defeats and seven league games without a clean sheet at San Mames.
Ante Budimir's Goal Run
Ante Budimir gives Osasuna the clearest individual storyline: he has scored four goals in his last five La Liga games and is the club's top scorer this season, converting a penalty in the 1-1 draw with Real Betis. That streak arrives as Osasuna are unbeaten in their last three outings — a 1-0 win over Girona followed by draws of 2-2 with Alaves and 1-1 at Betis — a form sequence that has trimmed the gap to the European places to five points behind sixth-placed Celta Vigo.
Osasuna Home and Away Records
Osasuna present a split profile that complicates the matchup: they boast the fifth-best home record and have gone nine consecutive home games without defeat since a loss to Real Sociedad in November, yet their away numbers are weak — 10 points from 16 top-flight road trips and just two away league wins all season. That contrast is the match's core tension: Athletic arrive wounded at San Mames but have avoided defeat in nine of their previous 10 La Liga meetings with Osasuna and have not lost to Osasuna in their last five home meetings, while Osasuna have not won at San Mames since February 2020.
Market pricing still favours Athletic at 1.75 for a home win, with a draw priced at 3.40 and an Osasuna victory at 4.75, a reflection of San Mames history despite Athletic's recent slump and Osasuna's mixed away record. For matchgoers and bettors the immediate choice is whether Budimir's streak and Osasuna's unbeaten run away from heavy defeats justify backing an upset, or whether Athletic's head-to-head edge and home bias keep the market leaning to a home victory.
Budimir remains the human hinge for both sides: his four-goal return in the last five games gives Osasuna a realistic route to close the five-point gap to sixth, and stopping him is Athletic's clearest tactical priority at San Mames. How the hosts handle that single threat will determine whether the one-point separation becomes a swing toward Europe or a missed opportunity for both clubs.
