Manchester City beat Arsenal 2-1 on Sunday and leapfrogged them as favourites in a title race that can still be decided in the coming days.
Michael Owen, watching the fixture list as closely as the scoreboard, said Arsenal’s last five Premier League matches are more favourable than City’s and argued the run-in gives Mikel Arteta’s side a clear opening. "That’s exactly it. There’s a lot of pressure on at the moment. Individually, you’d say they’re favourable teams to be playing," Owen said, adding: "So, Arsenal have got some decent fixtures, and as you say, recent history against those teams is looking favourable."
The recent history Owen mentioned is concrete: Arsenal have already beaten each of their remaining five opponents this season — Newcastle United 2-1, Fulham 1-0, West Ham 2-0, Burnley 2-0 and Crystal Palace 1-0 — meaning 15 points are available against teams they have beaten before.
That domestic ease of travel is real: Arsenal will not be required to leave London in the final few weeks of the season. Owen conceded the most troublesome name on the list is Newcastle United: "Probably the best team being Newcastle at the moment, but they’re in tatters. Their performances aren’t great at the moment."
But the backdrop to Arsenal’s friendly fixture list is a shift in momentum. Manchester City travel away to Burnley on Wednesday evening and could move to the top of the Premier League table by beating Burnley. City also still have away games at Bournemouth and a home match against Brentford, fixtures that keep them very much in the picture.
Former Arsenal defender Matthew Upson set out the counterargument after Sunday’s game. "To be honest, Arsenal actually performed better than I expected them to. I expected Manchester City to dominate the game and that was definitely the case," he said. He underlined why City now look better placed: "Having 60% of the possession in a game of that magnitude will put you in a great position. I thought Bernardo Silva and Rodri were just outstanding for them in the middle."
Upson was blunt on Arsenal’s current deficits: "It was really hard for Arsenal to get anything out of the game. I’ve seen a lot of Arsenal since the turn of the year, and their biggest problem is that they just haven’t been creating chances." He expanded on the symptoms: "They haven’t been developing the ball in wide areas like they did so effectively in the first half of the season." His bottom line: "Manchester City are coming into this final part of the race in a much better place."
The two lines of argument create the central tension of the run-in. On one hand, Arsenal have a theoretically soft five matches and the comfort of staying in London; on the other, City have just taken the initiative by beating Arsenal, possess the midfield control Upson praised, and can move above Arsenal this week. That contradiction — favourable fixtures versus superior current form — will decide how the Premier League title is settled.
Complicating the picture for Arsenal is their Champions League run. The Gunners reached the Champions League semi-finals after a 1-0 aggregate win over Sporting CP and will face Atletico Madrid in the semis, a tie Upson called manageable: "I think they’ve got a decent tie in the semis against Atletico Madrid." He even tipped Arsenal to reach the final in Budapest.
Conclusion: Arsenal’s fixture list and home-bound finish give them a clear mathematical route — five matches, 15 points — but Manchester City’s victory, the possession edge and Upson’s assessment that "Man City are in a far superior place to Arsenal on all of those fronts" make City the side with momentum. With City able to climb above Arsenal by beating Burnley on Wednesday, the title race now looks tilted toward Manchester City unless Arsenal can convert that favourable run into results and reassert the chance creation they showed earlier in the season.
