Nottingham Forest beat Chelsea 3-1 at Stamford Bridge on Monday, a victory that moved the club six points clear of 18th-placed West Ham and restored a five-point cushion over 17th-placed Tottenham Hotspur.
It was Forest’s seventh unbeaten Premier League match and the latest sign of momentum under Vítor Pereira, who replaced Sean Dyche in February and has lost only two of his nine Premier League matches in charge.
The weekend left the bottom of the table tighter than many expected: Leeds United, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest all won over the bank holiday weekend, while West Ham were thrashed 3-0 by Brentford on Saturday afternoon. Tottenham sit 18th with 34 points and four games remaining; West Ham have 36 points with four games remaining, making the final relegation place a fight between the two sides.
That arithmetic matters because, as one commentator put it, "Someone is going down with a lot of points, that is the reality of it." Rory Smith added: "In the last two seasons, the bottom three didn't crack 30 points, and we talked a lot about the idea that the promoted teams were at such a massive financial disadvantage that they couldn't compete." He also traced part of the change in form to differing runs: "Since the game against [Manchester] City in November, Leeds have been upper‑mid‑table in terms of form. Forest have come good a little bit later on." Smith warned bluntly: "And Spurs and West Ham - although they are the two in danger - one of them will go down with a lot more points than any team for quite a long time."
There is historical context to that warning. A team will be relegated from the Premier League with 36 points or more for the first time since the 2015-16 season if either Spurs or West Ham go down on their current totals. West Ham’s 42 points in 2002-03 remains the highest total for an 18th-placed side in a 38-game season. Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton Wanderers in 1997-98 were relegated despite reaching 40 points; Sheffield United went down with 38 points in 2007; Birmingham City and Blackpool were relegated with 39 points in 2011. In all but two of the last 10 top-flight seasons, 35 points would have been enough to avoid relegation.
The tension in this season’s run-in is therefore twofold: clubs fighting at the bottom must not only win but also push their points totals higher than recent norms, and the clubs chasing survival face fixtures that could decide everything. West Ham still have home games against Arsenal and Leeds left; Tottenham have home games against Leeds and Everton remaining. Those fixtures will shape whether the final drop is decided by goal difference, a late comeback or simply by someone collecting an unexpectedly high tally of points and still going down.
Pereira, standing in the middle of Forest’s revival, acknowledged the oddities of the table: "I believe this season will be special in terms of points needed to avoid relegation," he said. His side’s run — seven matches unbeaten and a win at Stamford Bridge — has put Forest a safe distance from the immediate scrap and given Pereira the breathing space his nine-match record has earned him.
The real story now may not be whether Forest survive — their form under Pereira suggests they will avoid the bottom three — but which of Spurs or West Ham becomes the season’s statistical outlier. For readers watching epl today, the late run-in promises an unusually high-stakes finish in which traditional safety marks feel suddenly provisional.
