Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United at 20:00 BST on Monday, a match that pairs Spurs' long-running dominance in the fixture with Leeds' rising form this season.
Tottenham arrive with a striking recent record against their visitors: Spurs have won eight of their last nine Premier League meetings with Leeds and have beaten them in the last five league games in a row — a run that stretches back to Leeds' 3-1 victory in May 2021.
Leeds, though, are no pushovers. They are unbeaten in their last six Premier League matches and have already registered a seven-game unbeaten run earlier in the season from December into January. Since the start of December they have collected 32 Premier League points, a haul only partially undermined by the fact that Manchester City, Manchester United and Bournemouth have each lost fewer league games than Leeds in that period.
Injuries complicate the picture. Leeds confirmed Noah Okafor picked up a calf strain after sustaining a right-calf contusion in the FA Cup and then aggravating his left calf in the Burnley game; club spokesman Edmund Riemer said Okafor will miss the next two games and the club are hopeful he will be available for the final match of the run. Riemer also said Gabriel Gudmundsson will be out this week and that Pascal will train individually with a hip contusion, while adding he was fairly sure Daniel Farke should be alright.
The match carries fresh significance for Spurs beyond the fixture record. No team has won fewer home Premier League points this season than Tottenham, and they have lost 10 home league games for a second consecutive campaign — only the 1991-92 season saw them lose more home league games in a year. At the same time Spurs are hunting a short-term landmark: a third consecutive Premier League victory would be their first trio of league wins in a row since February 2025.
Tactically, Roberto De Zerbi's early numbers offer a hint of how Spurs will try to force the issue. In their four games under the coach so far, Spurs have won possession in the final third an average of 5.3 times per game, showing the kind of aggressive ball-winning that can create chances even on a run of poor home results. Tottenham also have attacking pieces capable of delivering decisive moments — across the last three seasons Richarlison has scored or assisted roughly every 109 minutes in the Premier League — which helps explain why they remain dangerous despite their patchy record at home.
Leeds' profile is different but equally menacing: they have scored three or more goals in eight separate Premier League matches this season, evidence of a side that can overwhelm opponents when it clicks. The loss of Okafor removes a player who has been particularly efficient in front of goal — six goals in 408 Premier League minutes since the start of February — and that absence will test Leeds' rotation and resilience.
So where does that leave a straightforward tottenham vs leeds prediction? On balance, the history of the fixture and Spurs' renewed ability to win possession high up the pitch make Tottenham the narrow favourites to extend their run. But the severity of Spurs' home problems and Leeds' unbeaten momentum, combined with Leeds' capacity for high-scoring displays even without Okafor, point to a close game with goals. Expect a tight contest decided by fine margins: a one-goal Tottenham win or a draw is the likeliest outcome, rather than a comfortable home victory.
