Tottenham Hotspur host Leeds United on Monday at 20:00 BST in a fixture that pits a team with one of the Premier League's worst home records against a side on a sustained unbeaten run, and Leeds' Edmund Riemer is managing a short injury list as the trip approaches.
Tottenham arrive having moved out of the bottom three after back-to-back wins, including what has been described as one of their best displays of the season in a victory over Aston Villa. Yet the wins have papered over deep problems at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: Spurs have won only twice at home this season and have accumulated just 11 points there from 17 matches, scoring 20 goals in those fixtures.
The numbers underline how unsustainable Tottenham's reliance on away form has been. They sit third in the away form table behind Arsenal and Manchester City, and 70.3% of their points this season have come on the road. A further home defeat on Monday would see Tottenham equal the club record of 11 home league losses set in the 1991-92 season.
That vulnerable home profile contrasted sharply with the Villa game, where Aston Villa registered no shot until the 61st minute and had only one touch in Tottenham's penalty area before that point — evidence, at least on that day, of a side capable of dominant performances away from their stadium.
Leeds arrive unbeaten in their last six league matches and have been quietly commanding since the turn of the year: they picked up 32 points from the start of December, have won 32 points since that point, and have conceded fewer defeats across the last 22 top-flight matches than all but Manchester City, Manchester United and Bournemouth. That form has produced 47 league goals and eight different matches in which Leeds have scored three or more.
There is a clear, immediate prize for Leeds. They could be officially safe from relegation by Sunday evening if West Ham lose to Arsenal — and no team in a 38-game Premier League season has been relegated with 43 points. Leeds' road form has been a major part of their recovery: they have gone six away matches without defeat and even beat Manchester United at Old Trafford during that run, yet history at Tottenham is unkind — Leeds have not won any of their last six visits to Tottenham dating back to 2001 and have won only two of their last 15 meetings in all competitions.
Riemer outlined the fitness picture ahead of the trip, saying Daniel Farke was likely to be alright and detailing several absences. He confirmed Noah Okafor will miss the next two games with a calf strain and that Gabriel Gudmundsson is expected to be out for this week and will be assessed daily. Riemer added that Pascal will not train with the group because of a hip contusion but may still be available after individual training.
The tension in the matchup is obvious: Tottenham's season is being sustained by an unusually strong away record and a few bright performances, while their home form threatens to drag them back toward an unwanted record. Leeds bring form, goals and the real prospect of safety, but theirs is a trip to a stadium where they have struggled historically and where a home defeat would carry added significance for Spurs. For fans and for league positions, Monday night's tottenham vs leeds feels like the kind of fixture that will decide the next chapter — and Leeds, with form and points on the board and a still-manageable injury list, look likeliest to leave London with what they came for.
