Glassnode Research reported mixed Bitcoin market signals in its outlook: strong buyer interest persisted even as the spot CVD shifted from positive to negative, producing a market picture where increased selling pressure coincided with rising ETF activity.
Glassnode: Spot CVD Turned Negative
Spot CVD shifted from positive to negative, a metric Glassnode cited as evidence of increased selling pressure while trading activity rose on centralized exchanges; that combination shows buy-side demand alongside shorter-term exits rather than a clear bullish breakout.
Glassnode: Futures Open Interest Rose
Open interest increased in the futures market, and Glassnode reported the long-side funding payment declined significantly (funding payment: periodic fee between long and short futures holders), signalling that futures participants expanded positions even as it became cheaper to hold short exposure.
Glassnode: ETF MVRV and Netflow
US Spot ETF MVRV ratio and netflow increased, and trading activity in the ETF sector rose notably, reflecting concentrated regulated demand that contrasted with derivatives-driven caution; at the same time options trading showed decreased demand for downside protection and open interest in options contracted.
Perpetual CVD dropped sharply while Hot Capital Share declined, Realized Cap Change remained negative but improved, the STH to LTH Supply Ratio stayed stable, NUPL improved, Percent Supply in Profit strengthened and the Realized Profit to Loss Ratio dropped — a set of liquidity and profitability metrics Glassnode read as older, more dormant capital predominating even as net outflows eased.
Week 17 traders are left balancing those threads: ETF flows and higher MVRV offered pockets of realized gains, while on-chain and derivatives indicators signalled growing selling pressure and tighter risk positioning; the practical choice for active allocators is now whether to chase ETF-driven demand or to defer exposure until the spot CVD and perpetual CVD both show sustained improvement.
