Yannick Carrasco will lead Al Shabab into Sunday evening’s penultimate-round Saudi Pro League fixture against Al Ittihad, with the forward carrying the club’s scoring burden after 17 goals this season.
The simple arithmetic makes the stakes plain. Al Ittihad sit fifth on 55 points, while Al Shabab are 14th on 32 points. Al Shabab have managed seven wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats in the campaign and have not won in their last five league matches, conceding 14 goals across those five games. By contrast, Al Ittihad have 55 points from 16 wins, seven draws and nine defeats, have lost just once in their last five matches across all competitions and won their most recent outing 3-1 away at Al Ettifaq.
Home form has not steadied Al Shabab either: five home wins, four home draws and seven home losses leave them with a goal difference of -13. They sit six points above 16th-placed Al Riyadh with two games remaining; Al Riyadh’s goal difference is -29. For Al Ittihad, the numbers underline balance — six away wins, six away draws and four away defeats, 49 league goals scored and 39 conceded.
Head-to-head history deepens the problem for Al Shabab. Al Ittihad have won all five of the most recent meetings between the sides and claimed the last direct encounter 2-0. That recent dominance, together with Al Ittihad’s current form, frames the fixture as a clear test of whether Al Shabab can halt a slide that threatens to make the final weekend nervy.
The line-ups and absences sharpen the story. Carlos is sidelined for Al Shabab and will play no part on Sunday, and Saad Al-Mousa has been absent since November 2025 with an ankle injury — losses that concentrate the team’s attacking responsibilities on Carrasco. On the other side, Danilo Pereira has been Al Ittihad’s most reliable defensive presence this season, while Houssem Aouar will be central to their creative play.
The tension is structural: Al Shabab are six points clear of the relegation zone with two matches left, yet they have been unable to win in five and have been porous at the back, conceding 14 in that span. A single victory would largely erase immediate danger; failure to find three points against a club that has beaten them in each of the last five meetings would leave them dependent on other results in the final round.
On balance of form, record and recent meetings, Al Ittihad head into Sunday evening as the more complete side. Al Shabab need a result to move toward safety, and with Carlos unavailable and Carrasco bearing most of the scoring load, the task is straightforward to state and hard to achieve. The match will show whether Carrasco can produce another decisive performance or whether Al Ittihad’s combination of defensive stability through Danilo Pereira and creative force via Houssem Aouar will extend their recent dominance.
