Andrea Petagna will lead second-placed Monza as they host sixth-placed Modena at U-Power Stadium on Friday 24 April at 19:00, a fixture that follows Monza's run of two straight Serie B wins.
Monza arrive on the back of a 3-0 victory away to Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, a result built on clinical finishing despite recording only 38% possession and four shots on target; Patrick Cutrone, Giuseppe Caso and Andrea Petagna were the scorers. The form data supplied shows Monza with six wins, one loss and three draws over the cited period. Over those games Monza have averaged 1.8 goals from 4.1 shots on goal and 9.4 attempts, posted 52.1% possession and 4.6 corners per match, while their opponents averaged just 0.7 goals from 3.4 shots on goal and 8.1 attempts and were awarded 3.7 corners. Andrea Petagna and Matteo Pessina have each scored four goals for Monza, Patrick Cutrone three, and Paulo Azzi has provided three assists.
Modena arrive off a 2-1 home defeat to Frosinone at Stadio Alberto Braglia in which they held 48% possession but managed only two shots on goal; Yanis Massolin scored Modena's goal. In the form sample Modena have three victories, four defeats and three draws. They average 1.4 goals from 4.5 shots on goal and 11.6 attempts, 48.4% possession, 4.8 corners for and 5.3 corners against. Defensively Modena have conceded 1.4 goals from 4.2 shots on goal and 8.3 attempts on average. Daniel Tonoli, Manuel De Luca and Luca Zanimacchia have each scored twice for the visitors, and Simone Santoro has three assists in Modena's previous 10 games. The last meeting between the clubs saw Monza win 2-1 away at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
Both managers set out clear plans on paper: Monza lined up 4-4-2 with Demba Thiam in goal behind a back four of Luca Ravanelli, Filippo Delli Carri, Andrea Carboni and Adam Bakoune, a midfield featuring Pedro Obiang and Matteo Pessina, and a forward pairing of Andrea Petagna and Patrick Cutrone. Modena started in a 3-5-2 with Michele Pezzolato in goal, a back three including Alessandro Dellavalle and Steven Nador, and an attack led by Manuel De Luca and Giuseppe Ambrosino. That contrast—Monza's 4-4-2 compactness against Modena's 3-5-2 midfield density—creates the tactical friction to watch, particularly given Monza's recent ability to win with lower possession.
Betting markets and independent research underline the narrow lean toward the hosts. Monza were quoted at 1.78 in the Full-Time Result market, a price that implied a 56.2% chance from the top bookmakers; the research cited put the actual probability of a Monza win between 60% and 65%. A correct-score option of 2-0 for Monza was available at 6.00. The piece of analysis accompanying the odds recommended Monza as a win bet against Modena, reflecting the visitors' inconsistent form and Monza's recent efficiency.
The decisive question for Friday is simple and immediate: can Modena break down a Monza side that has turned efficiency into results, or will Monza's strike pairing, with Petagna already on four goals this period and Cutrone supporting, prove too much for a defence conceding an average of 1.4 goals? Given the head-to-head history, the numbers across attacking and defensive metrics, and the market view, Monza start as the sensible pick to extend their winning run—but the midfield battle created by Modena's 3-5-2 will be the real test of whether that forecast holds.
