Manchester City became Premier League leaders after a 1-0 win over Burnley on Wednesday night.
Mikel Arteta is the man living the result — the Arsenal manager watched City leapfrog his side and now faces a run-in in which every goal could matter.
The scoreboard now reads 70 points each, a +37 goal difference apiece and five league games remaining — the narrowest of margins with the title still up for grabs. Arsenal had spent 209 days at the top of the table before Wednesday's result, and that long stewardship has been whittled away in a week that began with a defeat by Manchester City on Sunday and ended with City taking first place.
Numbers underline why the tiny details will decide this race. Arsenal have won just six of their past 13 league games, and 10 of their 21 Premier League wins this season have come by a single goal — a tally that equals 48 percent of their victories. By contrast, historical title-winning campaigns average about 10.7 one-goal wins, a marginally higher figure suggesting champions normally find a few more comfortable margins.
Guardiola has been calm about the arithmetic, saying it boils down to winning games and stressing the balance between scoring and not conceding for both sides. Arteta, likewise, insists everything remains to play for. Former player Wayne Rooney has warned that Arsenal used to emphasise scoring because goal difference can decide a title and still considers Arsenal slight favourites, but he also urged them to stop trying to nick 1-0 victories and instead go at opponents to win by three or four goals.
Context matters: Arsenal's route to many of this season's wins has come through set pieces. They have scored a Premier League-high 21 non-penalty set-piece goals and produced a notable example at the start of March when they beat Chelsea at the Emirates by converting twice from corners. That source of goals, however, has cooled — Arsenal have managed only one set-piece goal across their four Premier League games since the Chelsea match.
Even in defeat at the Etihad, there were encouraging signs from Arsenal's open play. They generated a higher total of open-play expected goals than Manchester City at 1.32 to 0.98, a statistical suggestion that they created the better chances in open play. Kai Havertz, who scored Arsenal's equaliser against Manchester City earlier in the fixture, also had a string of openings: he missed a one-on-one chance saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma and later headed over from a Leandro Trossard cross in stoppage time.
The tension in the title fight is therefore twofold. On one hand, Arsenal still create chances and have a set-piece arsenal that has delivered more than any other side this season. On the other, their recent run of results and the decline in set-piece returns have left them exposed to the narrowest of margins. Ten one-goal wins will not feel like a safety net if the title comes down to goals scored — and after Sunday's defeat Arsenal have already fallen behind on that metric.
Arteta must decide whether to cling to the low-risk approach that has delivered many one-goal triumphs or to push for more emphatic victories; Rooney's advice is plain that a change of mindset is needed if Arsenal are to protect a lead on goal-scoring totals rather than points alone. With five league games left, the clearest consequence is this: unless Arsenal start forcing bigger scorelines or find their set-piece scoring touch again, the title is likely to be decided on the fine margins that have just tipped in Manchester City's favour.
