Lazio will play Udinese in Rome on Monday evening. The hosts arrive off the back of a dramatic Coppa Italia semi-final on Wednesday night, when Alessio Romagnoli’s late strike put Lazio on course for a 3-2 aggregate win in Bergamo only for Atalanta to equalize immediately and force extra time, before Lazio prevailed in a penalty shootout that included multiple misses.
The shootout produced a standout figure: Edoardo Motta, who made four saves to help Lazio through, and a place in the Coppa Italia final where they will face Inter Milan. The run to the last day of the cup has not been easy — Lazio eliminated Bologna and AC Milan on the way to the semi-final — and the energy expended there will shape how they line up against Udinese on Monday.
On the numbers, Lazio sit ninth in Serie A and are four points clear of Udinese, who occupy a spot just behind them; a win for Udinese would reduce that deficit to one point. Bookmakers list Lazio at 1/1 to win, the draw at 12/5 and Udinese at 11/4, reflecting a market that still gives the home side the edge despite recent calendar congestion for Maurizio Sarri’s team.
Context sharpens the matchup. Lazio have won four of their last six league matches and last week ended Napoli’s long top-flight unbeaten streak at Stadio Maradona, a result that underlined a late-season uptick. Udinese arrive with momentum in their own right: since the start of March they have beaten Fiorentina 3-0 and AC Milan 3-0 and drawn with Atalanta and Como, and they have conceded one goal across their last four matches. Their recent form and defensive solidity are why they remain a live threat in Rome.
Tension comes from histories and absences. Udinese are unbeaten in five straight away games against Lazio; at the tail end of last year a late Keinan Davis strike earned them a point in the reverse fixture. Yet Udinese were beaten 1-0 at home by Parma last time out, a reminder that their form has edges as well as momentum. For Lazio, the squad list is thinner than usual: Mario Gila is out with an ankle injury, Adam Marusic is a doubt, and Danilo Cataldi, Mattia Zaccagni, Ivan Provedel and Alessio Furlanetto are all ruled out, while Nicolo Rovella is in the treatment room. Udinese will be without Jordan Zemura and Nicolo Bertola, and Jesper Karlstrom is suspended.
Those absences matter more than headlines. Ivan Provedel’s absence removes a clear first-choice goalkeeper from Lazio’s matchday plans; Edoardo Motta’s shootout heroics on Wednesday underline Lazio’s depth in an instant, but the club will be managing minutes and fitness across league and cup. Udinese’s defensive record across four matches suggests they can impose themselves even when favourites tilt the market the other way.
For readers wanting a straight call, a plain lazio vs udinese prediction leans to the home side but not by much: Lazio’s cup momentum, home advantage and the market price at 1/1 make them the realistic pick, yet the weight of injuries and Udinese’s unbeaten run in Rome make a low-scoring game or a narrow result far likelier than a comfortable Lazio win.
The most consequential unanswered question is whether Lazio can absorb the absence of key players — notably Provedel and Zaccagni — and still match Udinese’s organized defence and recent away resilience; the answer to that will decide whether this finishes as a home win, a draw that closes the gap to one point, or another surprising result for Udinese.
