Manchester City stumbled at Brighton on Saturday afternoon, leaving their runaway feel slightly frayed but their position at the top still intact with 49 points and two matches left.
City remain heavy favourites to win the Women's Super League. They sit on 49 points and, by the simple arithmetic of the table, a win in both remaining matches would guarantee them the title; four points would probably be enough because their goal difference is 13 better than Arsenal's for now.
Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are locked in the fight for the other two Champions League places. Arsenal have 38 points and three games in hand — they would reach 53 points if they win all of those fixtures — while Chelsea sit on 40 points and Manchester United have 38 points.
The race for second and third could shift quickly. Chelsea could go five points clear of Arsenal in second with two games to go if they beat Everton on Sunday. Manchester United may need to win all three of their remaining games to keep pace; their schedule includes a final-day trip to Chelsea.
For Manchester City the immediate arithmetic is simple: win both remaining matches and the title is theirs. They are already qualified for the Champions League, and they need a single point to seal a top-two finish and automatic Champions League qualification regardless of the title outcome.
At the bottom, the season carries an unusual twist: the team that finishes last will face a relegation play-off, for this season only, against the third-best team from WSL 2. Leicester City sit on nine points, West Ham have 13 points, and Leicester are four points behind West Ham with a game in hand. Leicester's remaining fixtures still include London City, Arsenal, Chelsea and Everton, a sequence that will decide whether they can climb clear of the drop zone.
These margins matter because City have recent history that tempers any complacency. They won the title by five points over Chelsea in 2020-21, but two seasons later — in 2023-24 — they lost the title to Chelsea on goal difference. That recent pattern of near-misses is why a single stumble like the one at Brighton looks larger than the table suggests.
There is also a structural pressure on the run-in. With two matches left for City and three for Arsenal, the combination of games in hand and superior goal difference means the title can still slip away if City fail to take the straightforward points that remain available. At the same time, Chelsea's chance to stretch clear of Arsenal on Sunday would change the demands on Manchester United and Arsenal in a single afternoon.
The clearest conclusion from the current standings is this: Manchester City are in the strongest position and remain heavy favourites, but their recent slip at Brighton underlines that the finish is not a formality. If City collect four points from their two remaining fixtures they should be practically impossible to catch; if they do not, Arsenal's three games in hand and Chelsea's tilt at second make a chaotic finish likely.
