Dangote Refinery raised the ex-depot gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit to N1,275 per litre from N1,200 and lifted diesel to N1,800 per litre from N1,750, and it suspended loading operations at the facility around midnight Wednesday, officials said.
The move took effect at around midnight Wednesday with a Proforma Invoice that reflected the new pricings, and came as global crude benchmarks jumped: Brent crude rose from $105 per barrel on Monday to $118 on Wednesday and was trading near $124.90 per barrel at 06:13 am WAT, while West Texas Intermediate was trading at $109.20 per barrel at the same time.
Those increases immediately tightened supply and pricing across Nigeria’s downstream market. Major depots in Lagos, Calabar, Warri and Port Harcourt offered diesel at sharply higher levels on Wednesday: Swift and Duport at N1,980 per litre in Lagos, TMDK at N1,950, Northwest depot at N1,985 per litre in Calabar, First Fortune at N1,950 in Warri and Matrix depot at N2,050 per litre in Port Harcourt. Dangote also raised its coastal petrol supply price to N1,215 per litre.
Retailers have been adjusting pump prices repeatedly this week. Three days earlier many filling stations nationwide had raised petrol to between N1,365 and N1,440 per litre. Ranoil and Empire Energy in Abuja cut their pump prices on Saturday to N1,365 and N1,375 per litre, after selling at N1,440 per litre on Friday. Checks by Vanguard showed petrol in Lagos and its environs rose to N1,300 per litre from N1,250 at many stations.
Analyst Olatide Jeremiah said the link between the crude spike and domestic prices is direct and immediate. "For Nigeria, the implications are immediate. Higher crude prices directly increase the cost of importing refined petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel," he said. "This puts fresh pressure on landing costs and sharply raises replacement costs for downstream marketers." Jeremiah added bluntly: "A fresh round of depot price hikes now appears unavoidable."
Mazi Colman Obasi drew the connection to geopolitical risk. "Instability in the global oil market will continue to impact Nigeria’s domestic market until the U.S.-Iran conflict ends," he said. "As long as the war persists, volatility will remain."
The sequence of moves is clear: an abrupt surge in Brent set off a quick re-pricing at one of the country’s largest suppliers, and that re-pricing has rippled into depot and retail margins. On Wednesday Dangote’s gantry hike and loading suspension created an immediate upstream squeeze; downstream depots and stations reacted with higher diesel offers and mixed pump adjustments over the following days.
The market shows two tensions that matter to consumers. One is timing: some retailers still trimmed pump prices on Saturday after selling higher on Friday, while key suppliers raised depot tariffs and halted loading at the refinery late Wednesday. The other is product divergence: diesel is trading at substantially higher depot levels than petrol, widening costs for businesses that rely on diesel.
Practically, the filing of a new Proforma Invoice and an effective suspension of loading mean downstream marketers must factor higher acquisition costs into their next rounds of pricing. Given Brent’s climb to roughly $125 per barrel and the pattern of depot responses across Lagos, Calabar, Warri, Port Harcourt and Abuja, the most likely outcome is another bout of upward adjustments at pumps nationwide.
With domestic pump prices already clustering between N1,365 and N1,375 at many stations and spot instances of N1,300 in Lagos, the suspension at Dangote and the higher diesel depot offers make it realistic to conclude that Nigerian motorists and businesses will face higher fuel bills in the coming days unless international crude reverses sharply.
