The Senior Citizens League says Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment will be 3.9%, a fresh estimate released this morning after the latest consumer price data. If that forecast holds, the increase would lift the average retired-worker check by $81.17 a month, from $2,081.16 to $2,162.33.
For a retiree receiving $2,000 a month, a 3.9% COLA would mean about $80 more each month. TSCL said the estimate is 1.1 percentage points higher than this year’s COLA of 2.8%, reflecting a cost backdrop that still weighs heavily on older Americans.
The group has made monthly predictions of the next Social Security COLA for years, using a statistical model that blends the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate and the national unemployment rate. TSCL said it released version v1.2 of the model in January 2025 and updated the date handling so it processes data by the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year.
The new forecast arrives as inflation is moving back toward the highs seen in the early 2020s, and TSCL says the problem for retirees is not just the size of the adjustment but how quickly it gets eaten up. More than 57% of seniors have skipped one or more medical products or services in the last year because of cost, and TSCL says rising Medicare premiums, housing costs, utilities and grocery prices are consuming COLA gains before many beneficiaries can feel them.
That is the friction in the 2027 Social Security cola estimate: a bigger check on paper does not automatically translate into more breathing room at the kitchen table or the pharmacy counter. The Senior Citizens League, established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, will keep publishing monthly updates, and the next one will show whether the latest inflation data pushes the forecast higher, lower or leaves retirees with the same basic problem — benefits that rise, but not fast enough.
For now, TSCL’s answer is clear. The 2027 COLA is projected at 3.9%, and for millions of retirees the question is not whether the increase comes, but whether it will be enough to keep pace with what they pay out every month.
